How the DM death spiral will happen

You know the routine, come home from work, put your keys down and collect the mail from the day.  There's a normal "pace" to it - a few flyers, some real estate postcards, maybe a bill - but most of it is just junk.

As a marketer I probably pay more attention to it to see what types of messages or programs are in the junk than most people.  Direct mail still can play a valuable role as a mechanism to support acquisition, cross sell and retention in areas like retail banking, automotive, telecommunications and B2B -  but it's days are numbered.

Every client I have though has over time seen diminishing returns from direct mail, and from every perspective.  One benefit of direct mail to the everyday consumer however is that it's volume is what helps keep the price of personal mail - stamps - down.

That got me wondering though about a bad spiral of cost and engagement that could (ok, will) happen with direct mail in the near future.  Follow me on this one.

As people continue to pay less attention to direct mail, the lower the return for marketers.

The lower the return for marketers, the less junk mail will be sent.

The less junk mail sent, the higher the cost of stamps.

The higher the cost in stamps, the less people will rely on mail for meaningful communications.

The less people rely on mail, the less people pay attention to direct mail.

This of course will take time, and isn't going to come to reach a finality for even longer - but this is how I think it will happen